Comparative Analysis of Statistical Models for Epilepsy Incidence

Authors

  • M. E. Ampaw Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana.
  • M. N. Nborlem Assemblies of God Hospital, Saboba, Ghana,
  • S. Eduafo Accra Institute of Technology, Ghana
  • A. Adu-Sackey Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana.
  • O. Osei-Tutu Valley View University, Oyibi, Accra, Ghana
  • M. H. Antwi Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana
  • D. Nana-Ampaw University of Ghana
  • K. O. Simpe International University of Grand-Bassam, Côte d’Ivoire
  • E. B. Obo Hefei University of Technology, China
  • S. Gyamerah RMIT University Australia
  • I. Agbesi Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi-Ghana.
  • D. Asante Flinders University, Renmark, SA, Australia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26437/ajar.v10i2.821

Keywords:

Epilepsy. demographic. geometric distribution. poison distribution. zero-inflated poison

Abstract

Purpose: The paper aims to identify the best-fit trajectory model among selected model candidates on the epilepsy dataset, emphasising time and demographic factors.

Design/Methods/Approach: The study employed secondary monthly count data from the District Health Information Management System-2 (DHIMS-2) of the Ghana Health Service. The data was analysed using zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression, and geometric regression (GR) models. These models were evaluated based on their goodness-of-fit to the dataset.

Findings: The geometric regression (GR) model emerged as the best-fit model compared to the ZIP and ZINB models. The results revealed that epilepsy incidence in the Saboba District is sex-dependent, with a significant p-value of 0.0369. Furthermore, the study found that epilepsy prevalence is relatively lower in younger children (0-9 years) and older adults (60-70+ years). Participants within the economically active age group (18-59 years) were found to be at the highest risk. Moreover, the year 2015 recorded the highest epilepsy incidence, while 2013 had the lowest.

Research Limitation: The study solely used a dataset from the Saboba District, Ghana. As a result, its conclusion may not be broadly applicable.

Practical implications: The study provides crucial information for healthcare policymakers to develop targeted interventions for epilepsy. It emphasizes the need to protect the rights of people living with Epilepsy (PLWE), integrate risk factors into outreach programs, and improve access to healthcare services. These findings can help health systems incorporate better treatment and care strategies for high-risk populations.

Social implications: The study highlights the significant social impact of epilepsy, particularly on the economically active population. It stresses the importance of addressing the stigma and discrimination faced by PLWE through public education and awareness campaigns.

Originality /value: This study uses advanced statistical models to offer a vigorous methodological lens for analysing epilepsy data, thus supporting future research and policy development in mental health and epilepsy management in Ghana and beyond.

Author Biographies

M. E. Ampaw, Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana.

Dr. Enock Mintah Ampaw is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science and Technology, Koforidua Technical University, Ghana.

M. N. Nborlem, Assemblies of God Hospital, Saboba, Ghana,

Nborlem M. N is a Research Assistant at Assemblies of God Hospital, Saboba, Ghana

S. Eduafo, Accra Institute of Technology, Ghana

Eduafo, S. is a Lecturer at Department of Mathematics, Accra Institute of Technology, Ghana.

A. Adu-Sackey, Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana.

Dr. Albert Adu-Sackey   is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science and Technology, Koforidua Technical University, Ghana.

O. Osei-Tutu, Valley View University, Oyibi, Accra, Ghana

Olivia Ose-Tutu is a Lecturer at the Department of Mathematics, Valley View University, Oyibi, Accra, Ghana.

M. H. Antwi, Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana

 

Maxwell Hubert Antwi is an Assistant Lecturer at the Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Health and Allied Science, Koforidua Technical University, Ghana.

D. Nana-Ampaw, University of Ghana

Nana-Ampaw, D  is a Research Assistant at the Department of Educational Studies and Leadership, University of Ghana.

K. O. Simpe, International University of Grand-Bassam, Côte d’Ivoire

Prof. Simpe K. O.  is an Associate Professor at the School of Business and Social Sciences, International University of Grand-Bassam, Côte d’Ivoire.

E. B. Obo, Hefei University of Technology, China

Bernard Essah Obo is  Research Assistant at the Department of Mathematics, Hefei University of Technology, China.

S. Gyamerah, RMIT University Australia

Dr. Samuel Gyamerah is a Research Fellow in College of Business and Law, School of Business, RMIT University, Australia.

I. Agbesi, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi-Ghana.

Isaac Agbesi Research Assistant at the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Faculty of Physical and Computational Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana.

D. Asante, Flinders University, Renmark, SA, Australia.

Dr. Asante A. is a Research Fellow in the  College of Medicine and Public Health, Rural and Remote Health, Flinders University, Renmark, SA, Australia.

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Published

2024-12-31

How to Cite

Ampaw, M. E., Nborlem, M. N., Eduafo, S. ., Adu-Sackey, A., Osei-Tutu, O., Antwi, M. H., Nana-Ampaw, D., Simpe, K. O., Obo, E. B., Gyamerah, S., Agbesi, I., & Asante, D. (2024). Comparative Analysis of Statistical Models for Epilepsy Incidence. AFRICAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED RESEARCH, 10(2), 474–500. https://doi.org/10.26437/ajar.v10i2.821

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Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024): Special Issue: Applied Research Conference of Technical Universities in Ghana 2024

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